By Adnan Adams Mohammed
Ghana’s economy is showing encouraging signs of recovery and resilience, with key indicators pointing in a positive direction under President John Dramani Mahama’s first year in office.
Yet, financial experts and global consulting firms are issuing a unified message: sustained success in 2026 hinges on rigorous fiscal discipline, effective resource planning, and careful management of lingering external risks.
Projections estimate a robust 5.7% GDP expansion for 2025, exceeding forecasts by the IMF and World Bank, signaling that the economy is back on a strong footing.
The Positive Trajectory: Discipline and Strong Indicators
Prof. Godfred Bokpin, Professor of Finance and Economics at the University of Ghana, commended the President’s first-year performance, stating, “Overall, the President has done quite well. Many of the indicators confirm that the economy is heading in the right direction.”
Key gains highlighted include:
Improved Fiscal Discipline: Expenditure cuts and stricter commitment controls by the Finance Ministry have been implemented.
Debt Reduction: Public debt decreased significantly by 15.65% as of July 2025, with the debt-to-GDP ratio dropping to 44.9% from 61.8% in December 2024.
Policy Coordination: Strong alignment between fiscal and monetary authorities has helped stabilize the economy.
External Support: Favourable global commodity prices and IMF disbursements of over $2.6 billion have bolstered national reserves and confidence.
The positive trend has already led to a credit rating upgrade by Fitch in June 2025 and is generating optimism for potential future upgrades, according to US-based finance professor, Williams Peprah.
Deloitte’s Warning: Lingering Risks and 2026 Focus
Despite the positive momentum, global consulting firm Deloitte, in its West Africa in Focus 2025 report, sounded a note of caution. The firm stressed that while fiscal discipline and debt sustainability are the order of the day, ongoing efforts face lingering risks.
Deloitte emphasized that effective resource planning, mobilization, and enhanced collaboration between the public and private sectors are crucial for establishing a resilient foundation for 2026. They also urged the government to increase capital spending as part of its fiscal consolidation efforts.
Professor Peprah echoed these concerns, warning that Ghana’s current benefits from high cocoa and gold prices are a double-edged sword. “If these prices reverse, it could negatively affect the economy,” he cautioned, urging policymakers to start planning for such eventualities.
Rating agencies are likely to maintain Ghana’s current B- rating in the short term while observing further developments, particularly revenue mobilisation and debt repayment capacity, before considering an upgrade.
Looking Ahead: Growth Fueled by Household Spending
The economic expansion of 2025, which saw non-oil growth remain firm at 6.8%, was significantly boosted by festive spending in Q4, according to market research firm IC Research.
Looking into 2026, analysts expect recovering household spending driven by stable prices and a softer VAT regime to continue supporting sales revenue and overall economic momentum.
The main investment focus appears to be on capital growth rather than immediate income generation capacity.
The path ahead for Ghana’s economy appears promising, contingent on the government’s ability to sustain the fiscal discipline of its first year, heed expert warnings about external risks, and effectively plan and mobilize resources for long-term recovery.
