Ghana’s economic prospects are looking up, with Fitch Solutions revising the country’s 2025 growth projection upward to 4.9 percent from its earlier projection of 4.2 percent.
As contained in its September 2025 Monthly Outlook, the 0.7% optimistic upward revision is driven by improving macroeconomic stability, supported by easing inflation and a relatively firm cedi.
This is 0.5% more than the Government of Ghana’s projection of 4.4% as captured in the 2025 Budget: 0.6% higher than the World Bank’s revised estimate of 4.3% and 0.9% higher than the International Monetary Fund’s growth projection of 4.0%.
Fitch’s revision signals renewed investor optimism about Ghana’s economic prospects, anchored on improving price stability, resilient agriculture, and stronger policy credibility.
Ghana’s economy remains on a steady recovery path, despite challenges such as fiscal consolidation, still high lending rates, and flat oil production. The stable currency and lower global energy prices are expected to boost consumer confidence and domestic demand.
A key driver of the economy, the agricultural sector, has been a top performer, expanding by 8.0% over the one year up to July 2025, driven by improved agricultural output. This growth is expected to continue, contributing to the country’s economic stability.
Challenges Ahead:
Meanwhile, some economists warn that sustaining the momentum will depend on fiscal restraint, continued structural reforms, and a stable exchange rate environment and have therefore urged the economic managers to diversify Ghana’s economic production base to generate sustainable growth, citing the need to support local farmers and drive demand for Ghanaian produce.
“Our production base is too narrow. We import almost everything. And as the growing middle class comes up, we are becoming much more import dependent rather than self-sufficient”, Professor Festus Ebo Turkson said while speaking during a UK-Ghana Chamber of Commerce and Deloitte Ghana seminar last week, cautioning that, Ghana’s economy remains too dependent on imports and vulnerable to external shocks.
Prof. Turkson argued that diversifying Ghana’s economy production base starts with supporting local farmers and driving deliberate demand for Ghanaian produce. This demand, he said, must not be left to market forces but should be intentionally cultivated through government policies.
“Adding value to and demanding local produce will boost their productivity. Once we produce enough for export, we can then produce for import substitutes,” he noted.
This falls directly in line with the call made by the Government Statistician on the government to expand local food production, maintaining effective policy coordination among others to anchor the current success in achieving single-digit inflation.
Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu emphasised that the achievement, while significant, is only the beginning.
“We can actually do this by continuing to do what we are doing, which is keeping the inflation down,” he said on Channel One TV’s The Point of View on Wednesday October 8, adding “This will include keeping public spending discipline, supporting local food production and also maintaining policy coordination.”
He warned against complacency, noting that although inflation has fallen, prices are still rising just at a slower pace.
“This is not the time to relax at all. In fact, inflation of 9.4% still means that on average, we are seeing the general price level increasing by 9.4% between September of last year and September of this year,” he explained.
Dr. Iddrisu described the return to single-digit inflation as progress, but said the real challenge now is ensuring that it can be sustained over the long term.
On human capital, Prof Turkson explained that Ghana’s human resource quality has improved from a “low” to a “moderate” scale over the past two decades a good foundation for light manufacturing.
“What we need now is to tailor education to the needs of industry,” he said, calling for investment into soft infrastructure to enhance youth training and promote the use of appropriate, labour-intensive technologies.
Incentivizing firms to create jobs
Prof Turkson further suggested that providing incentives for firms that adopt technology while creating jobs would guarantee a steady stream of revenue needed to fuel further growth.
“This is the way we can develop. That is what we call transformation,” he concluded.
Enhancing Ghana’s investment climate
Meanwhile, Cheryl Otoo, a Senior Manager at Deloitte Ghana, highlighted Ghana’s regulatory complexity and infrastructure deficits as two of the biggest constraints to investment. To this, Wisdom Kpano, Partner at Deloitte Ghana, recommended that the government channel resources into agriculture and agro-processing, renewable energy, and oil and gas – sectors with high potential for inclusive growth.
Also, Nicolas Jørgensen Gebara, CEO of the European Chamber of Commerce in Ghana, pointed to mining and digital transformation, especially in the context of the government’s 24-Hour Economy Policy, while Osman Aziz, Senior Investment Officer at Venture Capital Trust Fund, underscored the need to bridge the gap between education and industry needs.
For Prof. Turkson, resolving these systemic bottlenecks and creating an enabling environment for private sector growth must be central to government policy.
Outlook
The Cedi’s appreciation has strengthened Ghana’s credit outlook, with the debt-to-GDP ratio falling below 50% for the first time in years. Bank of Ghana Governor, Dr. Johnson Asiama ,has noted, expressing optimism that the reforms underway will consolidate gains made so far and make the cedi the currency of choice for domestic transactions
While Fitch expects growth to hold at around 5.0% in 2026, underpinned by falling inflation, anticipated monetary easing, and increased public expenditure as Ghana’s IMF-supported programme winds down, the World Bank projects growth to strengthen further to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, underscoring a positive medium-term outlook.
Also, as Fitch projects inflation to decline to 8.0% by the end of 2025, down from 11.5% in August, marking the lowest rate in four years, the World Bank expects Ghana’s inflation to close 2025 at 15.4%, a projection that contrasts with the official rate of 9.4% as at September 2025, down from 21.5% a year earlier.
The Bank’s forecast appears conservative, given the country’s recent disinflation trend.
Nonetheless, the report expressed optimism that inflation will continue easing, dropping to 9.4% in 2026.
However, the Bank of Ghana, in its latest Monetary Policy Report, also reaffirmed expectations for inflation to remain within the single-digit range by year-end.
By Adnan Adams Mohammed
